Throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, trade negotiations often played out like unpredictable dramas. One country that found itself repeatedly caught in this dynamic was Canada. Even during moments when U.S.-Canada trade talks seemed to be progressing with goodwill and optimism, Canadian industries and officials found themselves facing sudden disruption, uncertainty, and economic pressure.
The Illusion of “Good Vibes”
In late 2019, as reported by The New York Times, Canada was engaged in intense trade negotiations with the United States concerning updates to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), eventually rebranded as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Publicly, both Canadian and U.S. officials maintained a positive tone. Statements from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office often suggested that talks were moving forward in good faith. President Trump, too, occasionally praised Canada as a “great partner.”
But beneath the surface, Canadian businesses and government leaders felt a different reality: persistent trade chaos driven by sudden tariff announcements, social media provocations, and unpredictable U.S. negotiating tactics.
Steel, Aluminum, and Dairy: Canadian Industries Under Pressure
One clear example was Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum under the justification of national security. This move surprised many in Ottawa and left Canadian producers scrambling. Despite close military and economic ties, the U.S. treated Canadian metal exports as potential risks, undermining the spirit of cooperation.
Additionally, dairy producers in Canada became a repeated focus for Trump’s criticisms. While negotiating USMCA, Trump described Canadian dairy policies as unfair, using them as a bargaining chip to extract concessions—often on Twitter and in press conferences, catching Canadian officials off guard.
Political Strategy Behind the Chaos
Experts argue that much of this unpredictability was intentional. Trump’s “art of the deal” approach often involved creating leverage through pressure and uncertainty. Even allies like Canada were not exempt from this tactic.
While Trudeau’s government sought to maintain a steady hand, officials acknowledged privately that negotiating with Trump’s team required constant flexibility. One senior Canadian trade official described it as “walking on a moving sidewalk that sometimes disappears beneath you.”
The Economic Impact on Canada
During the height of these trade tensions, Canadian businesses hesitated on investments, fearing sudden policy shifts. Supply chains linking U.S. and Canadian factories were disrupted. For example:
- Canadian auto manufacturers faced new compliance rules under USMCA that increased costs.
- Small exporters struggled with paperwork and new tariffs.
- Consumer prices fluctuated in industries directly affected by the disputes.
Despite these challenges, Canada continued to prioritize maintaining strong ties with its largest trading partner. The Canadian government emphasized dialogue and diplomacy, even when it appeared chaotic from the outside.
Lessons Learned and Lasting Effects
In retrospect, trade experts suggest that Canada’s experience during the Trump trade talks highlighted key lessons about modern economic diplomacy:
- Allies can still face tough tactics: Even close relationships don’t guarantee predictability.
- Public signals may not match private realities: “Good vibes” in press releases don’t always mean smooth negotiations behind closed doors.
- Diversification is crucial: Since the Trump years, Canada has made deliberate moves to expand trade ties beyond the U.S., including with Europe and Asia.
Looking Ahead
With new leadership in Washington, the U.S.-Canada trade relationship has stabilized somewhat. However, the unpredictability of those years underlines how economic policy can be shaped as much by political theater as by formal agreements.
For Canada, it was a period defined by resilience—navigating not just the written terms of a trade deal, but also the unpredictable style of a president who often treated international partners like contestants in a negotiation game.
